Trying to Make Sense

Out of the Epidemic

In complex dynamic systems, such as underlie epidemics, we do not easily keep track of all the stages and their ongoing interactions.

For example, mortality rate might mean total deaths from inception, divided by total population. Or, it might mean deaths during the last week divided by the number of people in hospital beds.

We have dozens of metrics for epidemics, many of them sharing the same name and bearing no formal definition. The press reports them and our leaders try to respond to them without really understanding what they mean.

The Epidemic Lab helps change confusion to clarity. It has precise definitions for all stages and the flows between them. It allows you to run simulations and learn how epidemics actually work.