The Epidemic Lab
Operation
The Epidemic Lab provides a way to simulate epidemics
and to experiment with social distancing, lockdowns, treatments and vaccines.
You operate the lab with the Control Panel.
The top panel of the Immunity Lab shows the behavior; the lower panel shows the structure. You can hover over the names on the control panel to see their definitions.
The Ready bar changes to Working while The Epidemic Lab generates the simulation.
MODELS: You may choose any one of five different models and switch back and forth to compare. You can change the properties on any of the models. If you Register you can also Save your models.
SPAN: You can select the length of the simulation. Vertical grid lines appear at 3-month, 6-month and 1-year intervals.
Welcome GUEST ! changes to Your_Name on line when you log in.
Show: You can select the stages that appear on the chart. For example, you might like to un-check Susceptible and Immune in order to take a closer look at Exposed, Infected and Bedridden.
Mortality Rate: shows the final percentage mortality for the simulation.
Unemployment: shows the final Unemployment Rate, when you run lock-down strategies.
Contagious: You may select the stages that may infect Susceptible.
STAGES: You can tune your model to the epidemic you wish to study by adjusting the Duration and Transfer-Forward Fraction for each stage. Duration indicates how long people reside in a stage before moving on to the next stage or to the immune stage. Transfer-Forward Fraction indicates the fraction of a stage moving forward to the next stage, with the rest flowing to the immune stage.
STRATEGIES: Once you tune your model to an epidemic, you can simulate various strategies to deal with it: Distancing; Lockdown; Vaccine; Treatment. You can set the Start Date, Duration and Effectiveness for each strategy. Low effectiveness represents a mild suggestion; high effectiveness represents heavy monitoring and enforcement.
Viral Heat indicates how quickly a virus spreads; a high-heat virus spreads quickly while a low-heat virus spreads more slowly. You can test how increasing Viral Heat speeds up the spread of the virus.
Viral Heat typically appears in the SIR and SEIR model literature as: b.
In the Epidemic Lab Model, we have:
Infection Rate = Susceptible * Contagious * Viral Heat
The Epidemics Lab Model computes Infection Rate in units of persons/day and all the Stage Levels in units of persons. This gives viral heat in units of (Persons/day)/(persons2) or %/(person-day).
Epidemiologists also discuss R0, the basic reproduction number (Pronunciation: R-nought or R-zero). R0 describes how many people one person can infect. R0 = 5 indicates one person can infect five other people. R0 > 1 indicates growth while R0 < 1 indicates decline. R0 does not carry any information about the rate of transmission. Nor does R0 appear as a structural element in SIR, SEIR or the six-stage Epidemic Lab Model. Epidemiologists use R0 as a metric that expresses the ongoing condition of an epidemic, not as a structural element to explain dynamics.
You operate the lab with the Control Panel.
The Epidemic Lab
The top panel of the Immunity Lab shows the behavior; the lower panel shows the structure. You can hover over the names on the control panel to see their definitions.
The Ready bar changes to Working while The Epidemic Lab generates the simulation.
MODELS: You may choose any one of five different models and switch back and forth to compare. You can change the properties on any of the models. If you Register you can also Save your models.
SPAN: You can select the length of the simulation. Vertical grid lines appear at 3-month, 6-month and 1-year intervals.
Welcome GUEST ! changes to Your_Name on line when you log in.
Show: You can select the stages that appear on the chart. For example, you might like to un-check Susceptible and Immune in order to take a closer look at Exposed, Infected and Bedridden.
Exposed, Infected and Bedridden automatically re-scale
when you un-check Susceptible and Immune
when you un-check Susceptible and Immune
Mortality Rate: shows the final percentage mortality for the simulation.
Unemployment: shows the final Unemployment Rate, when you run lock-down strategies.
Contagious: You may select the stages that may infect Susceptible.
STAGES: You can tune your model to the epidemic you wish to study by adjusting the Duration and Transfer-Forward Fraction for each stage. Duration indicates how long people reside in a stage before moving on to the next stage or to the immune stage. Transfer-Forward Fraction indicates the fraction of a stage moving forward to the next stage, with the rest flowing to the immune stage.
You can adjust Duration and Transfer-Forward Fractions
on the Control Panel
on the Control Panel
STRATEGIES: Once you tune your model to an epidemic, you can simulate various strategies to deal with it: Distancing; Lockdown; Vaccine; Treatment. You can set the Start Date, Duration and Effectiveness for each strategy. Low effectiveness represents a mild suggestion; high effectiveness represents heavy monitoring and enforcement.
You can implement strategies on the Control Panel
Viral Heat indicates how quickly a virus spreads; a high-heat virus spreads quickly while a low-heat virus spreads more slowly. You can test how increasing Viral Heat speeds up the spread of the virus.
You can specify the Viral Heat on the Control Panel
Viral Heat typically appears in the SIR and SEIR model literature as: b.
In the Epidemic Lab Model, we have:
Infection Rate = Susceptible * Contagious * Viral Heat
The Epidemics Lab Model computes Infection Rate in units of persons/day and all the Stage Levels in units of persons. This gives viral heat in units of (Persons/day)/(persons2) or %/(person-day).
Epidemiologists also discuss R0, the basic reproduction number (Pronunciation: R-nought or R-zero). R0 describes how many people one person can infect. R0 = 5 indicates one person can infect five other people. R0 > 1 indicates growth while R0 < 1 indicates decline. R0 does not carry any information about the rate of transmission. Nor does R0 appear as a structural element in SIR, SEIR or the six-stage Epidemic Lab Model. Epidemiologists use R0 as a metric that expresses the ongoing condition of an epidemic, not as a structural element to explain dynamics.
(c) 2020 by Ed Seykota