The Epidemic Lab
Correspondence
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Professor Carl Bergstrom University of Washington, Department of Biology Dear Professor. Bergstrom, You might like to know I have an interactive dynamic model of the dynamics of epidemics on line that you might find of interest. I have it on-line, so the public may access it, experiment with it and learn how epidemics work. It extends the SIR and SEIR structures to six stages – including the insertion, in the central conversion loop, between “Susceptible” and “Infected”of “Exposed.” This, and other features, provide more control over the rates, shapes and phase angles of all the stages as the epidemic starts, matures and ends. The model defines how each state informs the flows between itself and the other states. It also models the effects of various strategies such as distancing, treatment and vaccine. The important structural parameters present as slider controls on the user interface, so you can test your own assumptions. www.Epidemic-Lab.com I feel that people with more understanding of the dynamics of epidemics would likely implement more rational policies. I aim to contribute to increasing the level of understanding. I gather from your writings that you share this aim. By the way, I like your diamond-graph antidote to prevent jumping to false-causal conclusions. I would welcome an opportunity, as you see fit, to collaborate with you and your model-building staff and to share ideas and learn how to make better models. Yours truly, |
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To: Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck Director, Institute of Virology University of Bonn, Germany Dear Dr. Streeck, You might like to know I have an interactive dynamic model of the current epidemic on line that supports your interpolations and conclusions. I have it on-line, so the public may access it, experiment with it and learn how epidemics work. It extends the SIR and SEIR structures to six states – including the insertion of “Exposed” between “Susceptible” and “Infected” in the central conversion loop. This, and other features, provide more control over the rate and shape of the infection process. It also models the effects of various strategies such as distancing, treatment and vaccine. http://www.Epidemic-Lab.com I feel that as people gain more understanding of the dynamics of epidemics they grow more likely to implement rational policies. I would welcome an opportunity, as you see fit, to collaborate with your model-building staff and to share ideas and learn how to make better models. Yours truly, |
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June 4, 2020 To: Ron Paul (Texas) Dear Congressman Paul, You might like to know I have an interactive model of the current epidemic on line that supports your views. I have it on-line so the public may access it, experiment with it and learn how epidemics work, all for free. www.Epidemic-Lab.com I feel that people with more understanding of the dynamics of epidemics would likely support more rational policies. Yours truly, |
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June 4, 2020 To: Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) Dear Senator Paul, You might like to know I have an interactive model of the current epidemic on line that supports your views. I have it on-line so the public may access it, experiment with it and learn how epidemics work, all for free. www.Epidemic-Lab.com I feel that people with more understanding of the dynamics of epidemics would likely support more rational policies. Yours truly, |
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June 1, 2020 To: Lauren Ancel Meyers Professor of Integrative Biology University of Texas at Austin Dear Professor Meyers, Thank you for contributing your energy and abilities toward understanding the COVID-19 epidemic, and for leading an interdisciplinary team of people who build tools to to track and mitigate emerging viral threats. In this connection, I would like you to know I have an interactive epidemic model on line and available for experimentation. It extends the SIR / SEIR template to six stages and also has controls to calibrate the model to any epidemic by setting inter-state transfer rates and viral spread proclivity. It also has a graphical user interface to facilitate running experiments with distancing, treatment and vaccines. It computes solutions very quickly with Euler’s step-wise integration method. I think my model is fairly accurate; my main design goal has to do with making it easy to use, accessible and comprehensible to anyone who knows how to operate a video game. I would appreciate your having a look. www.Epidemic-Lab.com I would like to connect with some experts in epidemiological modeling to share ideas and to learn and to find ways to improve the accuracy and the utility of my model. In the event you or any of your staff have any interest in pursuing such a sharing of ideas, you can reach me by email or phone. Also, I happen to live in the neighborhood, South Austin. Yours truly, - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Hello, Thank you for contacting the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. We are receiving a large volume of requests and hope to respond soon. If you’re with the media, please contact Christine Sinatra – Christine.sinatra@austin.utexas.edu Please visit our website to access our COVID-19 mortality forecasting model and reports of recent analyses to support local, state and national COVID-19 response efforts. We appreciate your patience and efforts to protect the health of our communities. Sincerely, |
I invite comments and suggestions.